By Bernard Walliser
Economics, facing psychological tactics of choice makers is a part of cognitive technology; conversely, cognitive technological know-how, confronted with constraints on details processing, is a part of economics. In July 1990, the Cecoia 2 convention was once organised in Paris to additional discover the connections among the 2. The papers awarded during this quantity illustrate this really interdisciplinary learn intertwining social and cognitive sciences. 3 major themes are represented: agent's psychological illustration while dealing with advanced uncertainty; agent's computational constraints resulting in bounded rationality; agent's studying and evolution in an imperfectly identified setting
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51 optimal value that their performance is even worse than the chaotic system of non-predictive agents. 0 0 100 200 time 300 400 F i g . 6. C o m p a r i s o n of fraction of a g e n t s u s i n g resource # 1 for s y s t e m s of n o n predictive a g e n t s (light gray c u r v e ) , p e r f e c t l y - i n f o r m e d s y s t e m a n a l y s t s (upper dark c u r v e ) , a n d s l i g h t l y m i s i n f o r m e d s y s t e m a n a l y s t s (lower dark c u r v e ) . A l l s i m u l a t i o n s were of s y s t e m s o f 1 0 0 a g e n t s u s i n g t h e s a m e payoffs, delay, r e v a l u a t i o n rate, a n d u n c e r t a i n t y a s in p o i n t d of F i g .
Then, we illustrate the behavior of perfectly-informed and slightly-misinformed system analysts. Next, we introduce adaptive system analysts, which observe the behavior of the system in order to modify their assumptions about other agents. Finally, we summarize our results and discuss briefly the many unresolved issues which remain. MODEL We shall focus on a system in which a large number of agents are free to choose (asynchronously and independently from one another) from among various resources according to their perceived (not necessarily correct) payoffs.
A mixture of predictive strategies can help stabilize the system. Having learned the first two of these lessons, we combined the technical analysts' responsiveness to system behavior with the system analysts' knowledge of the dynamical equations which govern the system's behavior to obtain a successful hybrid which avoids chaotic behavior and performs well. The third major point has only been touched upon in this work, but Hogg and Huberman (1990) have begun to explore mixtures of predictive strategies and how they evolve.
Economics and Cognitive Science by Bernard Walliser